In the realm of preparedness, not all threats are created equal. Let's talk about a methodology to strategically prioritize our prep based on three axes: Effect, Likelihood, and Cost.
First, consider the Likelihood. What's most probable? Depending on how you drive, being involved in a car accident is probably pretty likely. Likelihood of you being attacked by a polar bear? Small, but never zero.
List out a few scenarios that you think you should prep for and give each a number based on how likely you think they are. Your rating may vary based on seasonality, or current events. For instance, in central Texas, I am worried about tornadoes, ice storms, car accidents, civil unrest, and a few other scenarios.
Seasonal or Geographic considerations: California: think wildfires and earthquakes. Central US? Tornadoes. South/Gulf Coast? Hurricanes and floods. Election year? Civil Unrest. Start where the probability is highest.
Next up: Effect. Ask, "How bad will it be if this happens?" A traffic accident, for example, could be very bad for you or anyone else involved, but society as a whole is not going to come apart because of one accident.
Natural Disasters, Civil Unrest, and the people who take advantage of the aftermath of these situations have a wider effect. While the impact to you may or may not be as acute, the broader implications mean that you will be responsible for your own security, medical, and sustainment.
Taking all these factors in, you can assign various scenarios an Effect score, and plot them out against the Likelihood that the event will happen like this:
You really want to pay attention to events that land in the right side of your chart, especially things that are in the upper right. If you have unlimited funds, prepare for all contingencies, but for us in the real world, money is a scarce resource, so preparing for the mostly likely and highest effect is key.
Now, let's talk Cost. It's not just about money—it's about effort, time, and resource allocation. Preparing for common but impactful scenarios like natural disasters might seem costly, but not preparing? Costlier.
If we look at everything in the upper right, the scenarios can all seem a little daunting. Getting reliable power to your home is expensive, gear can be shockingly pricey, and training takes both time and money. But let's look at a few ways we can save.
First, identify the cheap stuff to prep for - for us, that's a car accident. We already are paying for life and motor insuarnce, that's the most expensive part. If you want to go extra, grab a few of these and zip-tie them to your turn signal bar on your car. You can also pick up a few of our North American Rescue Tourniquets as well.
Speaking of TQs - There are many situations where these come in handy. Car accidents, injuries from natural disasters, or God forbid, if you are somewhere that has had an active shooter, the ability to stop the bleed is invaluable. The same is true for a lot of the equipment that we sell and you should be familiar with - owning and knowing how to use this gear will help you in many situations. You can see one example in this blog.
Where does technology fit? Well, during any disaster, communication is key. Our custom-programmed radios and Meshtastic devices ensure you stay connected when traditional networks might falter. Essential for both high and moderate likelihood events.
For high-impact scenarios like natural disasters—consider not just the prep for the disaster itself, but after effects - Emergency Services being knocked out and you having to respond to medical emergencies and security concerns like looters. That’s why we offer a robust selection of optics, lights, slings and first and second line gear to protect victims.
Summing up: Start with the most likely, prepare for the worst, and choose cost-effective methods. For all things preparedness—from off-grid comms to medical and security gear—check out Constellation Response - and sign up for a free consultation. We’ll get your questions answered.
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